BLACK SWAN FRIDAY????

 

https://youtube.com/shorts/zKhWTxalaRI?si=Fapcw5JQ_YoRAT-j

I am MERGING a Black Swan with a Black Friday to get a Black Swan Friday!

BLACK SWAN

A BLACK SWAN event refers to an unpredictable, rare, and high-impact occurrence that severely disrupts financial markets or systems. Popularized by Nassim Taleb, these events—like the 2008 financial crisis or the 1987 crash—are often rationalized after the fact as if they were predictable. They highlight the vulnerability of systems to "unknown unknowns". 

Key Characteristics of Black Swan Events 

• Rarity: They are outliers that lie outside the realm of regular expectations.
• Extreme Impact: They carry massive, often global, consequences.
• Retrospective Predictability: Despite being unexpected, human nature drives us to concoct explanations for them after they happen, making them appear predictable in hindsight.
• Historical Examples: The 1929 Wall Street Crash, 1987 Black Monday, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Investment and Risk Management 

• Fragility: These events reveal that most portfolios are fragile and over-reliant on normal, bell-curve modeling, which ignores extreme, "long-tailed" risks.
• Opportunity: While causing panic, these events provide opportunities for investors who are prepared and able to recognize value amid chaos.
• Preparation: While you cannot predict a black swan, experts suggest building robust portfolios that can withstand sudden, extreme shocks. 

BLACK FRIDAY

The original "Black Friday" financial crash occurred on September 24, 1869, when speculators Jay Gould and Jim Fisk attempted to corner the U.S. gold market, causing prices to plummet, stocks to crash, and widespread financial ruin. President Grant intervened by selling government gold, breaking the market bubble. 

Key Historical Black Friday Events:

• September 24, 1869 (Gold Panic):Gould and Fisk bought massive amounts of gold, driving prices up. When Grant released $4 million in government gold, the price dropped from $160 to $130, triggering a panic.
• October 29, 1929 ("Black Tuesday" era): While the main crash was on Tuesday, the days surrounding it were equally chaotic, marking the start of the Great Depression.
• Nov 26, 2021 (Post-COVID Selloff): Yahoo Finance reported this date as the worst Black Friday selloff since 1931, driven by panic over new pandemic variants. 

Historically, this term refers to financial distress, though it is now commonly associated with the post-Thanksgiving retail shopping day.