I am MERGING a Black Swan with a Black Friday to get a Black Swan Friday!
BLACK SWAN
A BLACK SWAN event refers to an unpredictable, rare, and high-impact occurrence that severely disrupts financial markets or systems. Popularized by Nassim Taleb, these events—like the 2008 financial crisis or the 1987 crash—are often rationalized after the fact as if they were predictable. They highlight the vulnerability of systems to "unknown unknowns".
Key Characteristics of Black Swan Events
Rarity: They are outliers that lie outside the realm of regular expectations.
Extreme Impact: They carry massive, often global, consequences.
Retrospective Predictability: Despite being unexpected, human nature drives us to concoct explanations for them after they happen, making them appear predictable in hindsight.
Historical Examples: The 1929 Wall Street Crash, 1987 Black Monday, the 2008 financial crisis, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Investment and Risk Management
Fragility: These events reveal that most portfolios are fragile and over-reliant on normal, bell-curve modeling, which ignores extreme, "long-tailed" risks.
Opportunity: While causing panic, these events provide opportunities for investors who are prepared and able to recognize value amid chaos.
Preparation: While you cannot predict a black swan, experts suggest building robust portfolios that can withstand sudden, extreme shocks.
BLACK FRIDAY
The original "Black Friday" financial crash occurred on September 24, 1869, when speculators Jay Gould and Jim Fisk attempted to corner the U.S. gold market, causing prices to plummet, stocks to crash, and widespread financial ruin. President Grant intervened by selling government gold, breaking the market bubble.
Key Historical Black Friday Events:
September 24, 1869 (Gold Panic):Gould and Fisk bought massive amounts of gold, driving prices up. When Grant released $4 million in government gold, the price dropped from $160 to $130, triggering a panic.
October 29, 1929 ("Black Tuesday" era): While the main crash was on Tuesday, the days surrounding it were equally chaotic, marking the start of the Great Depression.
Nov 26, 2021 (Post-COVID Selloff): Yahoo Finance reported this date as the worst Black Friday selloff since 1931, driven by panic over new pandemic variants.
Historically, this term refers to financial distress, though it is now commonly associated with the post-Thanksgiving retail shopping day.
From its start in the 7th Century, Islam expanded from Saudi Arabia throughout Northern Africa, Middle East, Asia and parts of Southern Europe through war and conquest.
JIZYA - PROTECTION TAX upon the infidels (aka kuffar or dhimmis) was used upon non-Muslims that they would encounter and pirate in the Mediterranean. Same shady sheet Muslim Somalians did in Africa 2005-12 and similar to now in Minnesota in 2017-26.
Surah 9:29 of the Quran, which commands fighting against those who do not believe until they pay the jizya with "willing submission" and feel themselves "subdued".
This pissed off President Jefferson, so he sent the U.S. Marines to do the first ass kicking on foreign soil!
The First Barbary War (1801–1805), or Tripolitan War, was the first major foreign conflict fought by the United States, initiated when President Thomas Jefferson refused to pay tribute to North African pirates. The U.S. Navy blockaded Tripoli and executed raids, leading to a 1805 peace treaty ending the mandatory tribute, though ransom for prisoners was paid.
Key details of the conflict include:
Combatants: The United States, with some support from Sweden and Sicily, fought against the Barbary State of Tripoli, with sporadic involvement from Algiers, Tunis, and Morocco.
Causes: Tripoli's Pasha Yusuf Karamanli demanded higher tribute ($225,000) for safe passage of U.S. ships in the Mediterranean, leading to a declaration of war against the U.S. in May 1801.
Key Events: The USS Philadelphia was captured in 1803; Lieutenant Stephen Decatur famously led a mission to destroy the captured ship to prevent its use by the enemy.
Outcome: A treaty was signed on June 4, 1805, ending the conflict. While the U.S. paid a $60,000 ransom for prisoners, the war established the U.S. Navy's reputation and reduced the necessity of paying tribute.
Significance: It was the first overseas war fought by the United States after independence, enhancing American patriotism and foreign policy confidence.
In the early 19th century (1801–1805), the U.S. Marines fought against the forces of the Barbary States, specifically the Regency of Tripoli.
These opponents are characterized in historical records as:
Barbary Corsairs (Pirates): They were state-supported privateers from the North African Ottoman provinces of Tripoli, Algiers, and Tunis, as well as the independent Sultanate of Morocco.
Ottoman Subjects: While Tripoli was quasi-independent, it was technically a province of the Ottoman Empire, and its rulers (the Karamanli dynasty) owed loose allegiance to the Ottoman Sultan.
Muslim Privateers: Historical accounts from both the U.S. and the Barbary states identified the combatants by their faith; the Tripoli forces often referred to themselves as mujahideen (naval holy warriors) in their own records, while American diplomats described them as "Musselmen" (Muslims).
Berbers and Arabs: The local populations and military forces of the Barbary Coast consisted primarily of Berbers and Arabs.
Historical Context of the Conflict:
The Cause: The war began because the Pasha of Tripoli, Yusuf Karamanli, demanded increased tribute (protection money) from the U.S. to stop his corsairs from seizing American merchant ships and enslaving their crews.
The Marines' Role: In 1805, Lieutenant Presley O'Bannon and a small detachment of Marines led a diverse force of mercenaries across the Libyan desert to capture the city of Derna. This victory is memorialized in the opening line of the Marines' Hymn: "To the shores of Tripoli".
Religious vs. Economic Motivations: While some contemporary accounts and modern interpretations frame the conflict as a religious "war on terror," most historians emphasize that the war was primarily economic and political, fought over freedom of the seas, trade rights, and the practice of state-sponsored piracy rather than religious faith.
The U.S. Marines fought in the
First Barbary War (also known as the Tripolitan War) between 1801 and 1805. This conflict, fought against the Regency of Tripoli (modern-day Libya), is famously commemorated in the Marines' Hymn with the line, "to the shores of Tripoli".
Key military engagements involving Marines included:
Battle of Derna (April 27 – May 13, 1805): This was the Marines' first land battle on foreign soil. A small detachment of seven to eight Marines, led by First Lieutenant Presley O'Bannon, joined a mercenary force and marched over 500 miles across the Libyan desert from Egypt to capture the city of Derna.
The Burning of the USS Philadelphia (February 16, 1804): A group of volunteers, including eight or nine Marines led by Lieutenant Stephen Decatur, conducted a nighttime raid into Tripoli harbor to burn the captured frigate Philadelphia so it could not be used by Tripolitan forces.
Naval Bombardments (1804): Marines served aboard U.S. Navy warships that bombarded the city of Tripoli throughout the summer of 1804.
Historical Significance
The Mameluke Sword: After the victory at Derna, Prince Hamet Karamanli presented Lt. O'Bannon with a Mameluke-style sword. This design was adopted in 1825 and remains the official ceremonial sword carried by Marine Corps officers today.
The Nickname "Leathernecks": It is widely believed that Marines earned this nickname during the Barbary Wars because of the high leather collars they wore to protect their necks from saber slashes during hand-to-hand combat.
U.S. Flag Raising:The Battle of Derna marked the first time the American flag was raised in victory on foreign soil.
